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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a strong stance regarding Ukraine. After delivering threats of "severe repercussions" in August should Vladimir Putin carried on hindering ceasefire talks, the former president eventually enacted considerable restrictions on the Russian two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This action seriously hindered the Russian leader's capacity to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, via his newly presented detailed peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly drafted by American and Russian officials without Ukrainian or European input, he has clearly returned to his pro-Putin stance.

Favoring Military Action

This proposal would effectively reward Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite strong declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that very autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, implying handing Putin a portion of Ukrainian soil will please the ruler. But, Putin's invasion is not only about dominating a charred swath of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the democratic government that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Surrenders

While keeping in status the already divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would compel the nation to surrender all of this eastern territory. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been failed to occupy in more than a decade of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukraine's military defenses dangerously compromised.

The area is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that are a critical impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, providing Putin a clear way to Kyiv should he eventually choose to renew the war.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate future hostilities simpler for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to reduce the size of its military from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, the proposal sets no similar limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's legitimate leadership as Nazis, Trump's proposal declares: "All radical doctrine and actions must be rejected and prohibited." As if to emphasize this element, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Admittedly, the proposal makes the Russian Federation promise not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But given that Putin has breached equivalent agreements in the history – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – how should we trust Russia now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international security guarantees. While the initiative warns of a "immediate joint military response" if the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics vary from vague to troubling. The proposal would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the security presence, presumptively led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Russia from rebuilding his weakened troops, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Reaction

Another side agreement according to sources would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "major, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a military response. Yet in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's primary protection against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to act with force to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not