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Within the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.