Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.