A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
