From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”